A recent policy brief published by the California Graduation Research Project analyzed data related to school-related factors in high school dropout rates. In collaboration with the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD), the study’s authors used district data to track the educational progress of all first-time 2001-02 9th graders from the 6th grade through their expected graduation in the spring of 2005.

The researchers studied a group of 48,561 students who attended LAUSD middle schools and high schools and analyzed their transcript records and standardized test scores. These analyses, in conjunction with a broad database of student and school characteristics, revealed information on the middle school and high school factors that relate to high school graduation rates.

The study demonstrates that, for determining graduation rates, student demographics play a much lesser role than do academic experiences and school factors. The study’s key findings included the following:

Forty-eight percent of first-time 9th graders in 2001-02 graduated from high school 4 years later, but one-third of that group moved up to 10th grade on time.

Characteristics such as race/ethnicity, language, gender, and socioeconomic status affect whether a student completes high school on time, but these variables explain only 4% of the student-level variation in graduation rates.

Twenty-five percent of the student-level variation is explained by “middle school and high school factors such as mobility, success in algebra, test scores, and course failures.”

Course failures, particularly the failure of Algebra 1, had a severe impact on graduation rates, and each successive failure in middle school had a greater negative impact on high school graduation rates than did a failure in high school.

Absences in middle and high school were directly related to the chance of graduating, and students who changed schools were significantly affected by that level of mobility. Only about 35 % of students who changed schools close to the transition to grade 8 graduated on time.

Schools with high concentrations of English language learners were 40 % less likely to graduate on time, but there was no direct affect that explained the low graduation rates at schools where more than 20% of teachers lack full credentials. Attending a magnet school, though, dramatically improved students’ odds of graduating.

The policy brief holds that these findings can “inform efforts in the district and the state to make graduation from high school the norm for all students.” The findings support the notion that schools need to ensure that students’ academic and social needs are met before students’ entry in to high school. Increasing on-time graduation rates of al students will “require addressing “school-level conditions and the resources provided to schools.”

Solving California’s drop out crisis will not be easy: research revealed that graduation rates fell in 2006, particularly for African American and Latino students, and were the lowest the state had seen since 1997.